1.30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)

Altior won this race last year, beating the well fancied Min by 7l’s in mind blowing fashion. Before we talk about this years runners I’m willing to bet you any money you like that not a single horse in the field this year will be anywhere near as good as Altior in 12 months time.

Melon is likely to be all the rage after winning on debut for Willie Mullins at Leopardstown by 10’s. Winning by 10’s on debut, out of the Mullins yard, we should all be piling in, right? Not for me. The runner up Broken Soul, who was giving Melon 2lb that day, has since been comfortably beaten off a mark of 130 and there hasn’t been a single winner come out of that race in 8 runs. The form is weak. Melon is open to significant improvement but I won’t be queuing up to take the 11/4. He has no course form and I don’t think he was that impressive over his hurdles on debut. He dived at the last, hit a few in the final mile and beat a modest bunch. I can’t help but want to look elsewhere in the opener.

Ballyandy’s record at Cheltenham reads 113 and I’ve already touched on how important course form is. He’s had four runs these season and has been beaten twice by Moon Racer who now holds an entry in the Champion Hurdle. He won the Betfair Hurdle last time out (Grade 3 Handicap) but I feel he will need to jump more accurately and improve significantly from that run to play a part here. Ballyandy jumped a few of his hurdles poorly in that Betfair hurdle but he was able to get away with it because he was the classiest animal in the race. He can’t make those kinds of errors against today’s opposition.

River Wylde is the next horse I want to speak about, I think he’s very interesting. He’s trained by Nicky Henderson (trained last years winner of this race) and the same owners have another horse that I really like – Lough Derg Spirit. Lough Derg Spirit skips Cheltenham, probably for a crack at Aintree later on in the year but they’ve decided to run River Wylde here. I think he has a good chance. He won nicely last time out beating Elgin, Elgin also runs here and is 3lb better off for a 3l defeat but I think there is a bit more improvement in River Wylde. He was plenty keen enough in the early part of the race, suggesting he’d prefer if they go a bit quicker and he should get a stronger pace up front today. The faster he went the better he jumped and he absolutely winged the last two hurdles which ultimately won him the race. He’s rated 144 and if Henderson can find any improvement at all then he must run into a place.

Bunk Off Early has shown loads of improvement since switching to hurdles from the flat. He finished 2nd off 77 on the flat but now has a mark of 144 after finishing just under a length behind Bacardys at Leopardstown back in February. Ruby Walsh has chose to ride Melon though, and that must be concerning. 88% of winners since the Millennium won on their last start, that’s another stat to consider if you’re backing Bunk Off Early, Crack Mome or Elgin.

Beyond Conceit is better on soft ground, whilst High Bridge’s wins over hurdles have all came in much weaker races than this.

SELECTION – River Wylde (Each-Way)
DANGER – Melon

2.10 - Arkle Chase (Grade 1)

Douvan won this race last year beating Sizing John by 7l’s, I expect a similar winning margin this year.

Altior should win, and will win. It’s probably the banker of Day One but at odds of around 1/3, you’re not going to be rewarded unless you’re playing big stakes. If you have a four figure pot and if backing 1/3 singles are your thing then good luck. For those of you who are not clear on the odds side of gambling, if you back a 1/3 then you would need to put £300 on to make £100 profit (£400 total return).

I’ll be looking for a horse or two in the hope of landing a forecast or tricast, only at small stakes though.

Altior is miles clear on ratings. He’s rated 170 whilst the rest are all in the 140’s. Forest Bihan is his nearest rival on bare ratings and he’s only rated 149. If you put all the ratings through a computer simulator and programme it so all horses jump to the same standard then Altior wins by 21 lengths, but we know it’s not always that simple. I don’t really want to spend too much time previewing this race because as I said before, it should be straightforward for the favourite.

Charbel is the horse I’m playing for the forecast. He was 5th in last years Supreme, a race that is working out brilliant form wise. He beat Le Prezien on his first start over fences, again that form is working out well and he was 2nd to Altior at Sandown in December. He clearly enjoys good ground, he has decent form at the course and I think gives Altior the most danger.

Cloudy Dream is also a horse who wants good ground, Malcolm Jefferson has made that perfectly clear in the past. He might fill the places.

SELECTION – Altior
DANGERS – Charbel & Cloudy Dream (Forecast and Tricast bets only)

2.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Un Temps Or Tout won last years Ultima Handicap Chase by 7l’s beating Holywell and The Young Master. All three of those horses line up again today but it’s Holywell who comes out better at the weights.

Holywell was giving Un Temps Or Tout 5lb and The Young Master 4lb but now receives weight from both of those horses, that’s very interesting when looking at Holywell’s course form. 2nd in this race last year, 5th in the Gold Cup in 2015, winner of this race in 2014 and winner of the Pertemps Final in 2013 – he absolutely loves it around here. He would need to show much more than he has so far this season, but it’s likely Jonjo O’Neill has been training him specifically for this race. Jonjo O’Neill has won this race 3 times in the last 8 years and he also runs Go Conquer but he’s best when going right handed.

David Pipe is a trainer to watch in these big handicaps. His runner Un Temps Or Tout is officially 7lb higher than when winning this race last year. Another bold showing can be expected but other rivals might be better handicapped.

Ibis Du Rheu is an interesting horse but there are doubts over whether he’ll stay the trip, mainly because this is his first attempt over 3m’s. He won at last years festival in the Martin Pipe and placed in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last time out, the same race that Un Temps Or Tout placed in before winning this race 12 months ago. He was staying on over just under 3m’s at Chepstow a couple of starts ago and if he gets home then he might go well.

Selections – Holywell & Ibis Du Rheu (Both Each-Way)
Danger – Un Temps Or Tout

3.30 - Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

The feature race of the day, a race that the Irish have dominated in recent years winning the previous four renewals.

This is a race where past course form has been vital, since 1998 16 winners have been placed at the previous years festival.

The only horses who haven’t been placed at Cheltenham at any time during their racing careers are;

• Brain Power – Didn’t run at the festival last year and finished 8th on his only attempt at Cheltenham.
• Petit Mouchoir – 8th in the Supreme last year. That form is working out very well.
• Ch’tibello – Never raced at Cheltenham.
• Cyrius Darius – Never raced at Cheltenham.

Yanwroth was 2nd behind Yorkhill in the Neptune last year. Buveur D’air was 3rd in the Supreme, ahead of Petit Mouchoir. Moon Racer won 2015’s Champion Bumper but missed last years festival altogether. My Tent Or Yours was 2nd in this race 12 months ago, The New One was back in 4th. Footpad was 3rd in last years Triumph, with Sceau Royal well beaten in behind and Wicklow Brave hasn’t raced at Cheltenham since winning the County Hurdle in 2015.

This is weak Champion Hurdle, that’s for certain. I’m struggling to give you a confident selection.

On soft ground I’d back Buveur D’air but the conditions have gone slightly against him, for that reason I’m going to put up Yanworth. I think the drying conditions will suit and with The New One and Petit Mouchoir likely to make it a strong gallop I’m expecting Yanworth to reign them in up the hill. Buveur D’air and Petit Mouchoir can fill the places. I’d like to reiterate that Yanworth is not a confident selection in a wide open race.

Selection – Yanworth
Dangers – Buveur D’air & Petit Mouchoir

4.10 - Mares Hurdle (Grade 1)

Willie Mullins has won this race for the previous 8 years. 6 times from 2009-2014 with Quevega, with Glens Melody in 2015 and last year with Vroom Vroom Mag. He has the front two in the betting this year and would be odds on to make it 9 in a row.

Limini is the favourite, available around the 13/8 mark. She was expected to be supplemented for the Champion Hurdle but connections decided against it. There was then talk that VVM would go the Champion Hurdle route, again connections decided against it. That’s set us up for what looks like a thrilling 2017 Mares Hurdle.

Nothing separates the front 3 in the market on ratings. Limini (154), Vroom Vroom Mag (154) and Apples Jade (153) but then the closest rival those that trio is Ron’s Dream (145), she is an 80/1 shot. Ruby Walsh has chosen to sit on Limini and that makes her the one to beat. Limini beat Apples Jade by 2l’s last time out and I see no reason why the form should be reversed. Limini is 2/2 on good ground and with Midnight Jazz the obvious pace angle in the race, I expect Limini to settle nicely behind a strong pace and hit the front just before the final bend. Limini wins by a couple of lengths for me.

Selection – Limini
Danger – Vroom Vroom Mag

4.50 - National Hunt Chase (Grade 2)

A chance for the amateur riders to show us what they’re made of now. Last years race was won by the Jonjo O’Neill trained Minella Rocco. Jonjo has won this twice in the past 10 years, as has Gordon Elliott.

Edwulf is clear of these on the ratings, he’s rated 159 whilst Tiger Roll is next with a rating of 152. On ratings you’d say Edwulf should be significantly shorter than the 11/2 on offer but we need to work out whether he will run to 159 over the 4m trip, or whether another horse will step up on their mark now encountering a marathon distance. The furthest Edwulf has been is 3m1f when he was a staying on 2nd behind Children’s List. They pulled clear of the 3rd that day but with Children’s List being off since then it’s difficult to weigh up the form.

Quite a few of these have similar profiles, the only horse to have won over this distance is Dancing Shadows. He’s a horse on the up and would probably need to find somewhere in the region of 10-12lb to win this. That’s too much too ask I feel.

A Genie In Abottle is interesting, he was a staying on 3rd behind Anibale Fly over 3m’s at Naas back in January. There isn’t a great deal of form to go on from that race but this longer trip might bring out the best in him.

Champers On Ice is a horse I like. He had a spin around Cheltenham in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap where he finished a well beaten 6th of 14. His jumping was very poor on the first circuit as he dropped to the back of the field, maybe they went too quick for him? He actually looked like being pulled up in last place as they started the second circuit but he ran on strongly in the final part of the race and was beaten 21l’s. The fences at Cheltenham are stiff so Champers On Ice would need to brush up on his jumping but if he can, he might be involved in the finish.

Edwulf stands out to me though. I just feel he has that little bit of class. He settled nicely at the rear of the field at Naas, jumped lovely and won with a ton in hand.

Selection – Edwulf
Danger – Champers On Ice

5.30 - Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase

Another handicap to finish the day off. This is race that the British trainers have dominated in recent years. It was won by Ian Williams’ Ballyalton last year but Nicky Henderson is usually a trainer to watch.

Henderson has two in the race this year, Gold Present and Hammersley Lake. Nicky says that Gold Present wants good ground and he’s going to get that today. Gold Present is on the same mark as he was when 2nd to Frodon at Kempton at the end of February. He put in some brilliant jumps that day even though he was plenty keen enough. He had Charmix rated 145 well beaten heading into the final bend and for a moment or two looked like beating the 153 rated Frodon. If Frodon ran to anywhere near 153 then that makes Gold Present very well handicapped today. This bigger field and stronger pace might held Gold Present settle today and he’s a big player in this I feel. Although Gold Present has no course form, the Presenting gelding is 2/3 when running left handed.

Another interesting horse is Its’afreebee for the Skelton’s. A 144 rated hurdler was third behind Yorkhill and Yanworth in the Neptune last year. Its’afreebee also beat Le Prezien (now rated 149 over fences) at Haydock over the smaller obstacles. Dan Skelton has added cheekpieces and if they bring out any improvement over fences for Its’afreebee then he’s chucked in off 139. All of Its’afreebee’s form is going left handed and he’s already had a spin over the fences at Cheltenham when 5/7 in a very strong race behind O O Seven.

Selections – Gold Present & Its’afreebee (Both Each-Way)