1.30 - Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)

It’s the final day of the Cheltenham Festival and I really do hope you have enjoyed these previews. Hopefully they have gave you an insight into exactly why we back our horses and you can appreciate the effort that has gone into them.

I’m at Cheltenham today. If you’re set on finding me then I’ll be the smartly dressed fella sat up the bar drinking Jagerbombs at half eleven in the morning. Come over, say hello, and get the round in.

I’m sick of hearing “Sir Erec is the banker of the meeting”… “Sir Erec’s only got to jump around”… “All in on Sir Erec”

I thought Apples Jade would be 5 lengths clear jumping the last. I thought Tiger Roll was bombproof. I thought Paisley Park would motor away from the field after the last. I’m 2/3 so far.

The form book suggests this will be closer than the betting suggests.

Paul Nicholls’ horses are flying. He runs Pic D’Orhy here – he’s a complete unknown but is quite strong in the betting at the time of writing about this race.

Quel Destin, another from the Nicholls yard, has won two Grade 2’s and a Grade 1 – he’s no mug.

Sir Erec is 2-0 vs Tiger Tip Tap but I think TTT has had his excuses on both occasions. Both times he’s absolutely clouted the last when seemingly holding every chance and if you look back to his first defeat, you could definitely make a case that TTT was going just as well as Sir Erec.

Now I know jumping is the name of the game, but I’m not so sure Sir Erec should be so short. I think he’s the most likely winner but I just can’t be having the whole “He’s only got to jump around to win”

I’ll be doing a reverse forecast in this race, but I’ll keeping the stakes relatively small.

SELECTION – Sir Erec & Tiger Tip Tap (Reverse Forecast)

2.10 - County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

3 of the last 4 winners of this have been 33/1, 20/1 and 25/1. In the past 12 years the shortest priced winner has been 8/1, and there has been 7 winners at odds of 20/1 or bigger.

Paul Townend has won this twice in the last 4 years and his ride sticks out to me like a sore thumb.

Mr Adjudicator, rated 149, a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, placed a further twice in Grade 1’s over hurdles, and 2nd in a Grade 3 over hurdles behind Champion Hurdle winner Espoir D’Allen. He’s got form on ground with a bit of cut in it and he’s ran well off a long break before. He’s my main each-way bet in this race.

My other selection is Ch’tibello. He ran in last years Champion Hurdle and although he finished down the field in 8th, he could be in lightly off 146 considering he’s been placed in a couple of Grade 2’s.

Looking for one at big odds, Countister has been off the track for a year but might be let in a few lb’s light off 133.

I’d recommend picking two out of our three selections and playing them each-way. The order that I have written them below is the order than I fancy their chances.

SELECTIONS – Mr Adjudicator, Ch’tibello & Countister (All Each-Way)

2.50 - Albert Barlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 3)

This isn’t a race that excites me. Nothing really jumps out at the form book, and I’ve looked through it a couple of times.

In the past this has often gone to a horse with multiple wins already in that season and is somewhat battle hardened. If there’s anymore rain overnight then it’s only going to make it tougher on these young horses so I don’t think I’ll be chucking money at an inexperienced horse.

Lisnagar Oscar is going to be my main choice here. He’s improved with every race so far this season and this will be his 5th start over hurdles. He comes into this race on the back of 10l victory in a Grade 2 at Haydock, he was very strong in the finish. Rebecca Curtis knows exactly what it takes to win a race like this having won it in 2013.

The other horse I like the look of is Derrinross. He beat Sams Profile in a Grade 3 hurdle at Cork back in December. He was giving weight away to Sams Profile that day and Sams Profile was deemed good enough to be very well backed in the Ballymore earlier this week.

I’m not massively excited about this race, so I won’t be playing big stakes.

SELECTION – Lisnagar Oscar

DANGER – Derrinross

3.30 - Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

The feature race of the day. The feature race of the whole festival?

Native River won this last year. He came into the race with only 1 run under his belt and a lot of people were questioning whether it was the ideal preparation, that’s pretty much the same story this season with Presenting Percy.

Presenting Percy has done nothing wrong this season, but that’s because we’ve hardly seen him. Usually a horse who thrives on racing, that’s not the case this year. Percy is 2-2 at Cheltenham. He was super impressive when beating Monalee in the RSA Chase that year, but I think that form has taken a few knocks and that combined with Percy’s less than idea prep for this race is the reason that I’m willing to take him on.

I’m can’t get off Native River. I see very little pace in the race this year and I see him making all. Richard Johnson and Native River are a match made in heaven and if any horse tries to take them on for the lead then they will be firmly out of their comfort zone. I’m willing to forgive Native River his last run when he was beaten by Clan Des Obeaux as nearly all of his form is on a left handed track at Native River was jumping out to his right regularly.

Clan Des Obeaux is a good horse, there’s no doubting that, but he’s been beaten on all four of his previous visits to Cheltenham. Connections had to take their chance in this race after winning the King George, but I don’t see him getting the better of Native River on this sort of track.

All the other course winners are well out of form.

Might Bite couldn’t beat Native River when he came into the 2018 Gold Cup in red hot form, I doubt he’ll beat him this year.

Thistlecrack – I can’t have the fairytale.

Shattered Love – Well behind Kemboy last time.

Definitely Red – Regressing.

I rate Kemboy as the main danger. But I just don’t see him as a Gold Cup winner.

Native River is my NAP of Day Four.

SELECTION – Native River

DANGER – Kemboy

4.10 - Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2)

Pacha Du Polder has won this the previous two years and with the form that Paul Nicholls is showing I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he made it three on the bounce. Some might point to Pacha Du Polder’s age, the horse is 12. I’ll have you know that Paul Nicholls won this race back in 2004 with Earthmover – who was 13.

I won’t be putting any money down myself, but I can’t help but feel PDP will be shorter than 22/1 come the off.

Another race that I’m not mad keen on anything. I won’t be playing the current favourite – Stand Up And Fight.

Ucello Conti is probably the most likely winner but it’s one at massive odds that I want to take a chance on.

That horse is Haymount. This horse was once trained by Willie Mullins and was good enough to be placed in a couple of Grade 2 chases, finishing 3rd to Tiger Roll in the 4 miler at the Festival in 2017. Now I’m not for one moment saying that this horse retains that sort of ability, because if he did then he’d be the favourite for this race. But at odds of 25/1 I think you’re getting a bit of value if he can reproduce any of the ability he once had.

SELECTION – Haymount (Each-Way)

DANGER – Ucello Conti

4.50 - Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

We’re getting to the point of the festival now where if you haven’t had much luck in some of the Grade 1’s then you should really play these last two races with upmost care.

I’m playing two each-way bets here, small stakes, with a beer in my hand.

Le Prezien. Won this race last year off 150, he’s rated 151 today. He appreciates a strong pace to aim at and with Gino Trail in the race he’s sure to get at least one horse go forward and try to make all. Geraghty booked. Nicholls having a great festival. Previous course winner. That’ll do me.

Bun Doran. A horse who I like. A horse who I know Tom George likes a lot and I think this has been his target all season. He runs well fresh, handles the track and is versatile ground wise.

Small stakes on both.

SELECTIONS – Le Prezien & Bun Doran (Both Each-Way)

5.30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

In this last 6 years this race has gone to Gordon Elliott twice, Willie Mullins twice and Paul Nicholls twice.

They all have horses close to the head of the market. Surprised? Me neither.

The most likely winner is Dallas Des Pictons who was 2nd to City Island over 2m’s on Boxing Day. City Island beat the 152 rated Champ by 2l’s off levels earlier this week. Dallas Des Pictons has been stepped up in trip since that defeat and is 2-2. I think the 2m4f’s on this sort of track will be perfect. He’s without a doubt my main bet of the race.

The final race will be going to Ireland I feel and If I’m looking for one at a big price to send us all home happy then I’ll take a chance on Daybreak Boy who was rated as high as 99 on the flat. He’s in here of 138 and if he can put a good round of jumping together then he can be involved in the finish.

Dallas Des Pictons is my main bet in this race, but have a small each-way on Daybreak Boy too.

SELECTION – Dallas Des Pictons

DANGER – Daybreak Boy