1.30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)

The going is currently Good to Soft, Soft in places at Cheltenham but with further rain expected to fall, it will be interesting to see how the jockeys describe it after this race. One thing to note is that Cheltenham does dry out very quickly as they have excellent drainage.

I’m going to try and narrow every race down to about a handful of runners, this will save me spending too long on any race and each race will get the same amount of attention.

Klassical Dream, rated 154, will be the favourite at the off in my opinion. He joined the Willie Mullins yard from France where he showed a fair level of form on Very Soft ground. Since moving to Ireland, he’s 2-2 over hurdles on ground that had Good in the description. He beat Aramon (also lines up in this race) by a head last time out. Although it was only a narrow margin victory, I think the likely softer ground and track layout swings the advantage in favour of Klassical Dream in the rematch.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ course form puts me off Al Dancer. He hasn’t had a winner at the Festival since 2016 and is 3-57 at Cheltenham in the past 12 months.

I think Angels Breath will improve plenty with a strongly run race. He was beaten by Southfield Stone at Kempton last time out, but the winner got an easy lead on the front and I thought Angels Breath crossed the line with plenty left in the tank. He won at Ascot on soft ground and won a point-to-point on deep ground before joining Nicky Henderson.

Fakir D’Oudaries is a four year old and because of that he gets 7lb from all the older horses. He’s already rated 150 and if he runs to that rating he’ll be firmly in the mix. Joseph O’Brien’s horses aren’t firing though – they’re 1-29 in the last 14 days.

Grand Sancy is interesting but wants better ground than he’s likely to get, the same might apply to Elixir De Nutz, Mister Fisher and Aramon.

Gordon Elliott runs two, but I think they’ll come up short.

I have it down to two – Klassical Dream and Angels Breath. It’s a tough decision but I’ll go for Willie Mullins to get his first winner in this race since Douvan won it in 2015.

SELECTION – Klassical Dream

DANGER – Angels Breath

2.10 - Arkle Chase (Grade 1)

*Keeping a close eye on how the jockeys describe the ground after the first race* If the ground has any Good in the description then my main fancy here is Lalor. I was really impressed with his chase debut at Cheltenham back in November when he beat Dynamite Dollars comfortably. He jumped and travelled impeccably that day and then reappeared as the short price favourite at Sandown 20 days later. The ground turned very testing, Soft was the official description but there was a chance it was even softer than that. He failed to get into any rhythm and finished 3rd, 11l’s behind Dynamite Dollars. I want to draw a line through that run completely, but only if the ground doesn’t turn bottomless. Lalor has been freshened up after that Sandown run and does seem to run well coming off a break.

Glen Forza is the current favourite. He comes into this race having beat Kalashnikov by 19l’s last time out. I can’t take that form literally though as Kalashnikov jumped extremely poorly throughout that race and I think Glen Forza’s official rating of 150 might be generous.

Hardline is another horse I like. Trained by Gordon Elliott, he’s a Grade 2 winner over hurdles and a recent Grade 1 winner over fences. He’s a smooth traveller so he’ll be suited to the strong gallop he’s likely to get here. I’d say this is Ireland’s best chance of a winner in the Arkle.

Duc De Genievres might want further.

Kalashnikov would have to jump a lot better to have any chance.

The rest are seemingly running for a place at best in what looks like a weak Arkle.

SELECTION – Lalor
DANGER – Hardline

2.50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

The first handicap race of the Festival. In the last 5 years the winner has came from the first 5 in the betting, that’s fairly kind to a punter in a big handicap race like this.

If I’m being completely honest, I don’t fancy anything strongly in this and if you aren’t interested in having a punt on every race at the Festival then this is a race that I’d recommend skipping. If you are betting in every race then I’d advise small stakes here.

I’m going to oppose Give Me A Copper. He’s had only one run since November 2017 and that was 38 days ago when he finished 4th of 16 at Sandown. He has a nice weight but I have my doubts whether he should be so short. He’s clearly fragile and might not have enough experience for a race like this.

Noble Endeavour ran in this race two years ago when 3rd behind Un Temps Pour Tout. He was only 3 lengths behind the winner that day and was rated 154, he’s now rated 150. He has good course form, he’ll get the trip, Davy Russell is booked for the ride and 16/1 is a decent price.

Mister Whittaker will appreciate any rain that falls and has won at Cheltenham twice already.

SELECTIONS - Noble Endeavour & Mr Whittaker (Both Each-Way)

3.30 - Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

I’m struggling to get away from Apples Jade here. Her performance at Leopardstown in February was breathtaking and a repeat of that see’s her take this easily in my opinion. She was foot perfect over every single obstacle that day and powered home to win by as far as she liked. There’s a chance she gets a relatively easy lead and I just can’t see the boys being able to give her 7lb.

Buveur D’air was beaten by stablemate Verdana Blue at Kempton on Boxing Day and I actually think Verdana Blue won a shade cosily. Buveur D’air did have his excuses that day though. He made a couple of errors, one of them serious when he knocked a hurdle flat. He got back on the bridle but it’s probably took a bit out of him in the finish. Nico De Boinville delivered Verdana Blue right on the line and in my opinion won with a little bit up his sleeve. Buveur D’air will have to jump a lot better than that here.

Laurina is an interesting horse in the field. She’s unexposed, she gets the 7lb Mares weight allowance and she won the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle last year. If the ground turns bottomless then she’ll be a danger to our selection. This is her toughest race by a mile though and she’ll have to improve again to be in contention at the finish.

It’s difficult to make a case for any of the rest.

Melon finish 2nd in this last year but hasn’t been anywhere near his best this season.

On bare form Sharjah has it all to do to beat Apples Jade.

And the rest shouldn’t be good enough to win a Champion Hurdle.

SELECTION – Apples Jade
DANGER – Buveur D’air

4.10 - Mares Hurdle (Grade 1)

Willie Mullins has won 9 out of the last 10 renewals and has a very strong hand once again.

Benie Des Dieux, rated 151, is the favourite. She’s without a prep run, but took advantage of a below par Apples Jade on her last visit to a racecourse back in April 2018. Ruby Walsh has chosen to saddle her and that is significant considering he had the choice of riding the next two in the betting.

Limimi, ridden by David Mullins, is rated 150. She won the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle in 2016 and then finished 3rd in the Mares’ Hurdle in 2017, a race which she started the odds on favourite for. She was once considered to be good enough to possibly run in the Champion Hurdle but connections decided against it at the last minute.

Stormy Island, rated 148, is the pace angle in the race, she’s tried to make all in all of her 7 visits to a racecourse for Willie Mullins and I see no reason for a change of tactics. I think this trip will prove to be too testing for her and she’ll be swallowed up turning into the straight.

Roksana might run a good race taking on her own sex. She’s finished behind Buveur D’air and Santini on her last two racecourse appearances, that form is not to be sniffed at.

Mia’s Storm has returned to hurdles after an ill-fated spell over fences. She’s a listed winner over the smaller obstacles and will have no problem with strongly run race.

I personally think it’s between the aforementioned runners.

Benie Des Dieux is the obvious one, but she’s without a prep run and if she fails to show her best form I think Limini could be travelling strongly as they swing into the final bend. I think she’s the main danger to the favourite.

I do think Benie Des Dieux is the correct favourite, but a small bet on Limini Each-Way is probably the way I’d play this race if I was having a bet.

SELECTION- Limini (Each-Way)
DANGER – Benie Des Dieux

4.50 - Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed)

 Another handicap to get stuck into now, this one is for Novice Chasers rated 0-145.

This is a compressed handicap with only 7lb the difference between the top rated horse and the lowest rated horse.

11 out of the previous 12 winners of this race had their last run within the last 45 days.

10 out of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham.

12 out of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, and 9 out of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win that season.

Tower Bridge is my main bet here. He finished 2nd last time out behind Duc De Genievres who is 6/1 for the Arkle. Tower Bridge jumped out to his left almost the whole way around, he was slightly out paced before finishing strongly under a hands a heels ride by JJ Slevin to grab 2nd place. He’s in here off 141 and a return to a left handed track looks certain to suit. Tower Bridge has ran at Cheltenham before, finishing 5th behind Kilbricken Storm in last years Albert Bartlett. This has been his aim all season in my opinion and I wouldn’t be surprised if he went off favourite.

One that might run well at a big price is Springtown Lake. He likes to front run and might take some pegging back if allowed an easy lead. He’ll need to have a clear round of jumping but will appreciate any rain that falls.

SELECTION - Tower Bridge
DANGER – Springtown Lake

5.30 - National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase (Grade 2)

The final race of Day One is the National Hunt Chase. It’s for amateur riders and it’s a stamina zapping 4m trip.

If we’ve had a poor day up until this point then I’d recommend you keep stakes to a minimum.

Discorama is a very interesting contender. He likes to be dropped out the back and delivered late. This trip combined with quite a bit of pace in the race might play to his strengths. He finished 2nd in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle last year and was running on strongly up the hill. He comes into this race having fell at Naas last time out. He adopted his usually running style and made up some good ground in home straight. He was upsides the eventual winner Ballyward before taking a crushing fall.

Ballyward is the current favourite and a strong case can be made. Willie Mullins has won this race twice in the last 6 years and there was no sign he was stopping when challenged by Discorama. Ballyward finished 4th in the Albert Bartlett last year.

Ok Corral is right up there in the betting and having finished a running on 2nd in the Albert Bartlett last year it’s easy to see why. Derek O’Connor takes the ride and he has an excellent record in this race. Ok Corral has won both times he’s visited a racecourse this season and if he stays the trip he’s the most likely winner for me.

I won’t be gong mad in this race, keep stakes sensible.

SELECTION – Ok Corral
DANGER – Discorama