1.30 - JLT Novices' Chase (Grade 1)

We had the winner in the first race on Tuesday, but yesterday’s tip in the first flopped.

In the first race today I like the look of Defi Du Seuil.

I feel like he has all attributes for a race like this. He jumps well, he travels well behind a strong pace and he has good course form.

Lostintranslation is likely to go forward and try to make all, I’m hoping that Voix Du Reve takes him on for the lead, but I feel Ruby Walsh might him up to try and ensure he gets the trip. I think the pace will be decent enough though and that should suit Defi Du Seuil.

I think Defi Du Seuil should’ve beaten Lostintranslation twice, but at the moment it’s one win a piece. Defi Du Seuil got the better of his rival at Sandown last time out, Geraghty held on to him as long as he could before pushing him into the lead just after the last fence. Lostintranslation beat him the time before at Cheltenham though. On that occasion I felt Defi Du Seuil hit the front too early and Lostintranslation battled back in the final furlong to win. I think Geraghty will try and stalk the leaders for as long as he can and Defi Du Seuil’s turn of pace will be crucial.

Of the rest I think Reel Steel’s form in Graded races hasn’t been strong enough to win this. The same applies to Kildisart.

Vinndication is having his first run on a left handed course and has tended to jump out to his right previously.

I don’t think Voix Du Reve will stay the trip on this ground.

I think it’s between the front two in the market. Defi Du Seuil to beat Lostintranslation for me.

SELECTION – Defi Du Seuil

DANGER – Lostintranslation

2.10 - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

I’ve avoided quite a lot of the handicap races so far, often only putting up a couple of outsiders as each-way bets, but I really like one in this.

Sire Du Berlais is very interesting.

He ran in a qualifier for this race where you only had to finish in the top 6 to get in. He was right out the back for a lot of the way before running only strongly into – you guessed it – 6th place right at the end. He has decent course form having finished 4th in the Martin Pipe last year where again he was running on strongly. He has form on ground with a bit of cut in it and I think he’s be laid out for this race. He’s the favourite but I think he’s the most likely winner with a clear round of jumping. Gordon Elliott had the winner last year and the Irish have took this race for the last three years.

Of the others I think Notwhatiam will appreciate a strong end-to-end gallop and should be running on strongly at the end.

Those are the two that I’ll be playing in the race.

SELECTION – Sire Du Berlais

DANGER – NotwhatIam

2.50 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

This is an excellent renewal of the Ryanair.

Road To Respect and Frodon are the top rated horses in the field with a rating of 169. I’m really interested in Road To Respect.

Connections of this horse committed to the Ryanair once there was a deluge of rain predicted to fall on Tuesday. Road To Respect gets a bit further than this and with plenty of horses expected to go forward I think that will bring Road To Respect’s stamina reserves firmly into play. He has a touch of class about him too, he finished 4th in the Gold Cup last year and is a two time Grade 1 winner.

Of the others, it’s Monalee that I like most. He handles soft ground well, has finished 2nd at Cheltenham twice but my only problem with this horse is that he’s very likely to get taken on for the lead up front and that might damage his chances.

Monalee, Sub Lieutenant and Un De Sceaux are all front runners. Frodon, Balko Des Flos and Charbel have all been known to go from the front in the past and I just think all this pace will play into the hands of Road To Respect who will be running on at the finish.

Footpad is the favourite, he’s a five time Grade 1 winner, four of those over fences. I just feel his stamina won’t hold up in what will prove to be a strong gallop from start to finish.

Un De Sceaux is a class act but is now 11. I think it’s time for the younger horses.

It’s a tough decision but Road To Respect is my selection.

SELECTION - Road To Respect

DANGER – Monalee

3.30 - Stayers Hurde (Grade 1)

Paisley Park is the red hot favourite here. Emma Lavelle’s 7 year old has improved 30+ lb’s from a Novice Hurdler to a second season Hurdler and it the way he won the Cleeve Hurdle here 47 days ago was hugely impressive.

It’s quite difficult to make a case against him if I’m honest.

Backers of anything else in the race will likely throw up Emma Lavelle’s record at Cheltenham, 1-43 in the last five years, but she hasn’t had a horse like this one to go to war with.

There’s stamina doubts hanging over a few of these and the rain that has fallen will only make it even more stamina zapping.

Faugeen is the obvious one to start with. He was rated 174 at his peak but that was over 2m’s. He’s now an 11 year old and I’d seriously question whether he is a 167 over 3m’s on this type of ground.

Supasundae, rated 164 at his peak, is a 9 year old. Beaten in this race last year by Penhill and hasn’t been tried over this distance since.

Bacardys fell in 3 of his last 6 starts and fell in this last year.

Black Op took a beating from Paisley Park last time out when in receipt of 3lb, he races off levels today.

This brings me to the horse who I rate as the danger to Paisley Park – Kilbricken Storm.

Colin Tizzard’s returns to hurdles after a poor run over fences last time out. He won the Albert Bartlett last year, that was his 2nd win at Cheltenham. He’s got a bit to find on official ratings but will have no problem with the ground and the trip. Odds of around 16/1 is a fair price considering some bookies are paying five places.

SELECTION – Paisley Park

DANGER – Kilbricken Storm

4.10 - Brown Advisory Plate (Grade 3)

In the last 12 years this race has seen 66/1, 50/1 33/1, 33/1 25/1 and 18/1 winners.

I’m going to put up two horses at big prices that should be backed small stakes each-way.

Modus is the first one. Paul Nicholls’ horses are flying and Modus is a previous Grade 2 winner on soft ground at Wincanton. He’s ran in the previous four festivals, he finished 2nd in the Champion Bumper and even though this is a completely different test – his class might see him into a place at a nice price.

Kings Odyssey has generally came up short at this sort of level but he’s down to a nice mark, handles soft ground and has won at Cheltenham in the past. He’s another who might run into a place at a big price.

SELECTIONS – Modus & Kings Odyssey (Both Each-Way)

4.50 - Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2)

Epatante was spoken about for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle race, but connections swerved that race in favour of a shot at this race. She could be anything. Her form in the U.K isn’t anything to shout home about but she has an abundance of potential and I expect the money to flood in for her if owner JP McManus has already bagged a couple of winners on Day Three before this race starts.

The fact that Epatante hasn’t won a Class 1 race in the U.K means she gets 5lb from any rival that has, and that weight allowance could prove significant in my opinion. That alone makes her the most likeliest winner.

Posh Trish, Sinoria and Queenofhearts all have stronger form in the book but they are coming up against an exciting mare whilst trying to give her 5lb.

I rate Epatante has the likeliest winner of this race, Posh Trish would be the danger.

SELECTION – Epatante

DANGER – Posh Trish

5.30 - Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Class 2)

This final race on Day Three is the Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase. This is for amateur riders. This is a race that has been quite kind to the horses close to the top of the market in the last four renewals and I think that’s going to be the case again this year.

Measureofmydreams for Gordon Elliott and Jamie Codd looks to have been given an excellent chance by the handicapper. Once only 6l’s behind Native River in the 4 miler at the Fesitval, now rated only 137 with one of the best amateur riders booked – what’s not to like?

Any Second Now is the other horse who looks well handicapped. Twice 2nd to Footpad off level weights just over a year ago. Derek O’Connor is a fine jockey in these sort of races, if he gets the trip then he has the class to be involved at the finish.

If Day Three has proved profitable up to this point then I’d recommend win singles and a reverse forecast. If you’re chasing losses on Day Three at this point then please keep stakes sensible.

SELECTION – Measureofmydreams

DANGER – Any Second Now