1.30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)

The going turned Soft all over for the first race yesterday, some jockeys even claiming it to be on the heavy side.

Racing today was subject to an inspection, but thankfully it passed that at around 6am!

RACING GOES AHEAD!

I’m going to make a bold decision to discount the British form here, and I’ll explain why.

Champ is the current favourite and Brewin’upastorm is a 7/1 shot. Champ is 4-5 since switching to hurdles but I’m not entirely convinced with his form. He beat Getawaytrump last time out by a couple of lengths but that horse has been really disappointing since – finishing out of the places in a Grade 3 Hurdle race that Al Dancer won, and most recently finishing 4/6 at Kelso in a race that neither of the front three would be anywhere near good enough to win this.

Brewin’upastorm’s form ties in closely with Champ, and if you’re making a decision to discount Champ’s form then you have to discount Olly Murphy’s horses form too. Champ beat Brewin’upastorm at Newbury at the end of December. Some people would argue that a slowly run race wouldn’t have suited Brewin’upastorm, but Champ came from a similar position to beat him by 4ls. Brewin’upastorm then ran at Cheltenham 46 days ago and was in the lead when taking a crashing fall. He got in close to one or two hurdles that day, and in my opinion he didn’t have the race in the bag when he fell.

My decision to oppose the two British runners who are near to the top of the market brings me to the two Irish runners at the top of the market.

My main selection is Battleoverdoyen. He’s a winning point-to-pointer so we know he’ll get the trip. He’s unbeaten since moving to Gordon Elliott – 1 win in a National-Hunt race and 2 wins over hurdles. He jumps well and being one of the most lightly raced runners in the field he’s open to plenty of improvement. Gordon Elliott decided to keep him fresh for this race after winning a Grade 1 at Naas and I think he’ll be loving all the rain that has fallen since Tuesday morning.

The danger for me is the horse who finished 2nd in that same Grade 1 at Naas – Sams Profile. Mouse Morris doesn’t send many runners over to the Cheltenham Festival, but he won this race in 2011 with First Lieutenant.

SELECTION – Battleoverdoyen

DANGER – Sams Profile

2.10 - RSA Novices' Chase (Grade 1)

Gordon Elliott was 0-11 with his runners at Cheltenham yesterday but I think he can take the first two races today.

Delta Work is the top rated horse in this years RSA with a rating of 155. Timeform have him down as the top rated Novice Chaser in the UK and Ireland. He’s 3-3 since switching to the larger obstacles. He had to dig in deep on his chase debut to win at Gowran Park. He got in close to a few fences that day but his class pulled him through. He then went to Fairyhouse and lined up in a Grade 1 where he beat Le Richebourg in another battling finish. He was near foot perfect all the way around, and looked more at home chasing a good gallop. He hit the front but got in tight to the last fence but again he stuck his head down and showed excellent determination to win by half a length. He started a very short price for his next race, this was a Grade 1 at Leopardstown where Davy Russell held him up out the back. He didn’t jump the first few fences well and was hampered by a faller at the 4th or 5th fence. That didn’t stop him though as he won by 8l’s. He’s not foot perfect over fences but he’s got a great engine. He’s won at Cheltenham before and he’s likely to get a good pace to aim at. I think he’s the most likely winner.

Santini is a massive danger, but his preparation hasn’t been ideal. He missed his intended prep run, lost a shoe in training and there was even talk of him failing to make this race. He’s a previous course winner and is the main danger to our selection.

Topofthegame, also rated 155, has bundles of talent but is 0-3 over fences.

SELECTION – Delta Work

DANGER – Santini

2.50 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

This is a race that usually throws up a bit of a surprise.

8 of the last 10 winners have been 14/1 or bigger.

In the last 12 years, only 1 winner has carried over 11st 6lb to victory.

9 of the last 10 winners have had 1 win to their name that racing season.

Two very small each-way bets for in this race…

Highest Sun who barely came off the bridle when winning at Chepstow last time out. He has a nice weight, he won twice in France on soft ground and might improve for the step up in distance.

Calie Du Mensil is another who came from France. Trained by Willie Mullins who won this last year, he puts Katie O’Farrell up for the ride who takes off a handy 5lb.

SELECTIONS – Highest Sun & Calie Du Mensil (Both Each-Way)

3.30 - Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

Altior is unbeaten in 12 starts over fences and if he runs to his best today then he’ll be unbeatable. He’s well clear on official ratings and anything other than Altior winning this comfortably will be a big surprise.

Realistically we are looking for a horse for the forecast, Min is the obvious one but it’s an 11/10 forecast and that doesn’t appeal to me.

I can’t have Politologue at all. He’s 0-4 at Cheltenham, 7 of his 9 wins have been on right handed courses and he’s been comfortably beaten on his last two starts.

My selection for the forecast is Sceau Royal. He was 6th in the 2017 Champion Hurdle, has decent course form and should be ok soft ground. I think he’s better than the 24l beating Altior gave him at Sandown as he jumped out to his left that day on a right handed track.

It’s around an 11/2 forecast but in my opinion the safer bet is Sceau Royal to win the race WITHOUT Altior and Min in the betting. That’s 9/4.

SELECTION – Sceau Royal to win the race without Altior & Min in the betting

4.10 - Cross Country Chase (Class 2)

Tiger Roll is a short priced favourite to make it back-to-back wins in this race.

He’s 4-8 at the course, won this last year on similar ground and comes into this race on the back of a comfortable Grade 2 Hurdle win.

If he manages to avoid any big mistakes then Tiger Roll looks bombproof.

The dangers are few and far between if Tiger Roll runs close to his best.

Josie’s Orders should beat Fact Of The Matter off level weights, but Josie’s Orders was well down the field in this race last year.

The same can be said about Auvergnat.

Urgent De Gregaine was 2nd in this last year, but was pulled up on his latest start, which isn’t ideal. He goes well fresh though and would be the main danger to Tiger Roll in my opinion.

SELECTION – Tiger Roll

DANGER – Urgent De Gregaine

4.50 - Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

This is another race that usually throws up some big priced winners.

6 of the last 7 winners have been 25/1 or bigger.

11 of the last 12 winners have carried 11st 5lb or less.

I’m going to have two small each-way bets here…

Willie Mullins’ Ciel De Neige. He’s having his first run for the Irish trainer after arriving from France. He is rated 132 and could be anything. There might be a reason that Willie Mullins has decided against giving him a prep run.

Paul Nicholls’ Dogon is another who came from France. He will have to improve plenty to get involved but Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race and there’s a chance he’s been laid out for this.

I advise small stakes whatever you’re backing.

SELECTIONS – Ciel De Neige & Dogon (Both Each-Way)

5.30 - Champion Bumper (Grade 1)

There’s a few races on Day Two that are notoriously difficult for a punter and this is another.

There’s only been 1 winning favourite in the previous 12 years.

If you’re behind on Day Two at this point then keep stakes sensible, I think there will be better chances to claw your losses back than this race.

My main selection is going to be Gordon Elliott’s Envoi Allen, I think the extra bit of experience will help him in a race like this and I think he’s the one to beat.

The favourite is Willie Mullins’ Blue Sari, but only 1 four year old has won this in the last 12 years. He gets weight off Envoi Allen because of that, but I just think he might lack experience.

Of the others I think Ask For Glory is worth a mention. He won extremely comfortably on debut, but that form hasn’t worked out well at all.

Flic Ou Voyou is another one from Paul Nicholls who might run well at a big price.

SELECTION – Envoi Allen

DANGER – Blue Sari