1.30 JLT Novices’ Chase (2m4f – Grade 1)
The JLT Novice Chase is the first stop for our Cheltenham Festival Preview today.
I can’t see past the front two in the market here and the match up between Vautour and Ptit Zig is going to be a great spectacle.
Both horses are closely rated on hurdle form, they have started their chasing careers off with some very comfortable wins but they have both tasted defeat. Vautour finished 2nd to Clarcam when he was a very short 1/4 favourite but then won a Grade 2 event in the easiest of fashion. Vautour won the Supreme Novices 12 months ago and he is a worthy favourite in his 4th start over the bigger obstacles.
Ptit Zig is the one that i want to be on though. The horse has taken to chasing like a duck to water and although he fell last time out at Ascot, the horse jumped straight to its feet before galloping away. Ptit Zig has an RPR of 165 and that is 12lb higher than what Vautour has achieved. He has already won over Cheltenham’s fences when he slammed Champagne West by 6 lengths and holds a slight edge in ratings and experience.
I wouldn’t put you off backing the both horse to identical stakes which would yield a small profit if either of them win but I’m happy to back Ptit Zigg at 7/2 to edge out Willie Mullins’ Vautour
2.05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (3m – Listed)
Another big field handicap that is hard to predict until we know what horses are running here.
I try to back a horse that is below 11st but higher weighted horses do have a better record in this race. I’m happy to go up to 11st 4lb as 8 of the last 10 winners have been either this weight or lower.
Its important to back a horse that has won over 3 miles already and its worth noting that favourites have a poor record with only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years.
There has been 11 double figured priced winners in the last 13 years, so don’t be afraid to back an outsider!
Unique De Cotte would a be small each way fancy if he was to run here, but he’s also entered in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle on Friday.
2.40 Ryanair Chase (2m5f – Grade 1)
Last years winner Dynaste has been ruled out for the rest of the season so this leaves the door open for an up and coming chaser to take its chance.
Jonjo O’Neill has a very good record here and Johns Spirit would be in with a chance but stats suggest that he’s better on the Old Course.
I’ve tipped Don Poli to deliver the goods earlier on in the Festival but I think another ‘Don’ is in with a great chance here. Don Cossack is from the Gordon Elliot yard and although I was hoping he would be an each way price, I can see him going really close. I like the fact that the horse has already won over 2m7f and that came on good/firm ground which means the better ground will be of no problem here. Don Cossack has showed improved RPR in all 4 of his racing so far this season and Gordon Elliot has said this horse is stronger this year than last. With a clear round of jumping this horse should be making a bold attempt to give Gordon Elliot a winner at this years Festival.
I like Taquin Du Seuil but his jumping leaves a lot to be desired. He would have a decent chance if he could sort his jumping out today.
I expect Nicky Henderson to have a good Festival so I’m putting up Ma Filleule has the horse to get closest to Don Cossack. Her mares allowance gives her a 7lb pull at the weights and she is likely to give the boys a run for her money. She went down by 3 lengths to Balder Succes at Ascot but that run came after a short break and that run would’ve set her up nicely here. Her trainer is in fine form and I expect her to turn that form around.
Main bet – Don Cossack
Smaller bet – Ma Filleule
3.20 World Hurdle (3m – Grade 1)
A few key trends to possibly take note of in this race.
- 9 of the last 10 winners had an adjusted RPR of at least 165
- 9 of the last 10 winners had previously run at the festival.
- The last 10 winners were all aged between 6 & 9.
- The last 10 winners finished in the top 2 last time out.
- The last 10 winners have ran no more than 4 times since August.
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won a Graded hurdle over at least 3 miles.
Taking those points into consideration there’s one horse who really stands out for me – Saphir Du Rheu (The highest rated hurdler in this years World Hurdle) The Paul Nicholls trained horse has won 4 of it’s last 5 starts over Hurdles and Nicholl’s seems pretty confident of it’s chances going into this race.
“He stayed on really strongly up the hill at Cheltenham and that has put him to the forefront of the betting for the World Hurdle. He gallops and jumps and I think there is a lot of improvement to come from the Cleve Hurdle especially the fact that he hadn’t had a run for a while. His hurdling will sharpen up and he is really well.” That was Paul Nicholl’s after Saphir Du Rheu’s last outing where he won the Cleve Hurdle at Cheltenham back in January.
Sticking with the form of Saphir Du Rheu, I’m happy to back the very expensive Martin Pipe horse Un Temps Pour Tout. This horse was a £450,000 purchase and although he has had his troubles this might be time when he starts to pay some of the price tag back. He was heavily backed in the Cleve Hurdle after a long spell off the track but could only manage 3rd behind our other fancy Saphir Du Rheu. That was a massive run considering he was off the track almost 8 months. That run might have blew the cobwebs off and a big run is expected from him here.
Main bet – Saphir Du Rheu
Smaller bet each way – Un Temps Pour Tout
4.00 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate Handicap Chase (2m5f – Grade 3)
History suggest that the winner of this Handicap Chase will be low in the weights, 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lbs or less and officially rated between 128 and 140. I’ve said before that I like to back horses that are low in the weights in Cheltenham handicaps and this one is no different. I’m going for a bit of each way value.
Bobcatbilly at 25/1 is a horse that catches my eye, a winner 5 times in it’s last 11 races over the bigger obstacles and one that ticks many boxes if you’re a person who takes note of history. He’s a horse who is versatile ground wise, winning on heavy and good ground. My only slight concern would be that he hasn’t ran at the festival before, 7 of the last 10 winners have run at the festival, but this is a wide open field and Bobcatbilly looks to be in with a small chance off 10st 10lb.
Only 1 winner in the last 10 years has been shorter than 10/1 and 5 of the last 10 winners have been at least 25/1 at the off.
Jessica Harrington’s Burn And Turn is another that is worth a few quid each way if the mare runs. She will appreciate the better ground here and has some very decent form in the book. She is only 2lb higher when going down 11 lengths to Road To Riches and that horse has since won off a rating of 167. If you didn’t already know, Road To Riches is 9/1 for the Gold Cup on the final day and Noel Meade has said that this is one of the best horses he’s ever trained. For that reason alone I’m happy to take the 20/1 even though you’ll need to hope the horse handles the track here.
Bobcatbilly is now a non runner so Buywise is our replacement selection.
Small each way bet – Buywise
Small each way bet – Burn And Turn
4.40 Kim Muir Handicap Chase for Amateur Riders (3m2f – Class 2)
The Amateur Riders take over for the final race on Day 3 and although it’s a handicap, favourites have a decent record in this race. The favourite has been victorious 3 times in the past 10 years so it’s a happier hunting ground for favourite backers.
However it is sometimes a minefield when looking at form as 9 of the last 12 winners were unplaced last time out. I’m going to look for a horse that has had a light preparation before the Festival but comes from a powerful yard.
Look for a horse that has raced over at least 3m last time out as this trend has produced all of the last 10 winners.
If Standing Ovation gets in then I fancy his chances. He is from the David Pipe yard and although he fell last time out, he was still in contention. He jumped really well that day before he smashed through the fence 4 out but that didn’t stop his momentum and then seemed to over jump 3 out before falling. If he has fully recovered which I think he will have, then he looks to have a superb chance here.
The Ould Lad looks to have every chance of turning around the form with Benbane Head. The Ould Lad was turned out under a penalty that day and was giving away 3lb. He was well supported and if he can brush up on his jumping he should reverse the form. Those are my 2 selections for the Kim Muir Handicap Chase.
Main bet each way – Standing Ovation
Smaller bet each way – The Ould Lad
