Ronseal.

Trying something new starting from today. Doing a blog sort of post every couple/few days explaining what’s going on in my head to give people an insight into the way I think regarding gambling.

It’s a good chunk of time into the new season now, so we’ve managed to gather some information and stats (if you like that sort of thing) on a lot of teams.

Some of you will be here for horse racing, and I’ve been gathering information on the racing also.

From Southampton, a team who I struggle to understand, continuing to play out from the back when they haven’t got the players for it.

To Hamilton having a clear pace advantage on their straight course the last couple of meetings.

I’m trying to get my head around it all.

We’ll start with the racing over the next few days. Rain continues to fall and although it hasn’t hit all courses in the UK as of yet – Musselburgh tomorrow still has good ground – it will no doubt be soft ground all across British racing in the next week if this weather keeps up.

In Musselburgh’s 4:40 race tomorrow I like Believe Me Now from the Iain Jardine stable. The yard had two winners at Hamilton yesterday, one of them really well backed. Believe Me Now has an inside draw in a race where there is little early pace in the race. He’s 1lb higher than his last win which was three starts at ago Ayr – he raced bang up on the pace that day and the form in behind has been franked. His last two starts since that win have been over course and distance. Most recently he couldn’t get any of the early pace, he made up some nice ground a few furlongs from home before fading – the time before that he ran from the front and finished 3rd behind two horses rated 55. He was slightly keen in the lead that day and if he can settle better I think he’s a solid EW shout.

WEDNESDAY 2ND OCTOBER – 4:40 MUSSELBURGH – BELIEVE ME NOW – EW BET

Very shortly after I like one at Nottingham in the 4:55. Amancio. Again, I think this is a race where there is very little early pace and that can be favourable to our selection. Amancio has tried to make all on his last two starts. He sweated up and was a bit keen throughout the early stages of the race at Epsom. I thought he still ran to the line that day. Then most recently at Sandown I thought he settled a lot better and he ran to the line on that stiff finish. I think a repeat of that would be enough and given Rose Dawes takes off 5lb, I think it has an excellent chance.

WEDNESDAY 2ND OCTOBER – 4:55 NOTTINGHAM – AMANCIO – WIN BET

Moving onto the football now and I’m drawn to the Aston Villa vs Bayern Munich game tomorrow night.

Aston Villa’s first Champions League game at Villa Park – it will be a superb atmosphere. Aston Villa won’t change the way they play given their record against the big sides in England last season and I think it’ll be two teams going full hammer for the win. The referee is Radu Petrescu from Romania. He regularly produces 4 or 5 cards in a game – and that’s the angle in I’m going to try and play. Villa have good ball carriers in their team, I think Morgan Rogers is superb – he’s not too far away from being called up to England in my opinion, he’s going to test Bayern’s midfield and Pavlovic to be booked is my main fancy in this game. I’ll be playing him with a bookmaker who offer super sub because if he gets taken off then his replacement is very likely going to be Paulinha, a player who loves a yellow card and will be eager to impress. On the other side, Amadou Onana made 4 fouls in game week 1 when Villa played Young Boys. He wasn’t carded that game and up against far superior opposition this game week – he’s going in with Pavlovic to make a bookings double.

WEDNESDAY 2ND OCTOBER – ASTON VILLA VS BAYERN MUNICH – ONANA & PAVLOVIC BOTH TO BE BOOKED – USE A BOOKMAKER THAT OFFERS SUPER SUB

If you like that Onana angle in, looking at players who made loads of fouls in game week 1 but weren’t booked, then here’s a few more you can back…

ROBERT ANDRICH – BAYER LEVERKUSEN VS AC MILAN

CALLUM MCGREGOR – DORTMUND VS CELTIC

OTAR KITEISHVILLI – STURM GRAZ VS CLUB BRUGGE

All three of those players play midfield for their clubs, all three made 3 fouls in game week 1, all three were not booked and all three now play against better sides in game week 2.

A little trixie, perhaps?