Friday 4th October 2024 – Free Tips
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BACK AFTER THE INTERNATIONAL BREAK…
See below
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Not a lover of the pointless internationals myself, so I use it as a chance to recharge the batteries and watch a little bit more horse racing.
Speaking of horse racing – we approach a difficult spell in the racing season. A spell where I feel putters can be caught out by not realising what is happening. There’s two difficult spells I think;
1) When the flat season ends and the national hunt season starts.
2) When the national hunt season ends at the flat season starts.
“Race fit” – you’ll hear that expression used quite a lot of the next few weeks if you’re a racing fan. Trying to guess whether a horse is, or isn’t race fit is very difficult. You can often back a horse from a solid stable – use Emma Lavelle for example – and the horse just isn’t targeted for the race. The trainer isn’t targeting the early stages of the season at all. Her horses are having a spin, getting race fit, there’s that expression again, and then being aimed at a bigger race further down the season. Because of this you’ll see horses open up in the betting the night before at 4 or 5/1. Punters will think – “ah, that’s a course and distance winner, it’s got to have a chance” and they’ll put down their money. Then they’ll wake up in the morning and their horse is now a 12/1 shot – this is because the stable is well out of form, the horses from that stable are getting to the final bend and then fading.
Emma Lavelle is 0 wins for 17 runners in the last two weeks by the way, just so you don’t think I’m randomly picking on her. I like her and there will be a stage in the season where her horses are absolutely flying and you can back them blind because they are well handicapped – but that’s not this current moment.
I usually just watch the first 2 or 3 weeks of the season, judge what trainers are in form, what trainers aren’t and then I’ll pick it up next week with a few selections.
On the football now. Seems rather weird to be starting it off talking about Wigan – but I still think they’re a side to keep on the right side of. I don’t think they’ll be getting promoted, but they’re solid at the back and they keep popping up at a nice price – as they are today to beat Cambridge away from home.
My selections today on the football are as follows;
HOMES – Reading, Bolton, Bromley
AWAYS – Norwich, West Brom, Wigan, Walsall
I’ll be playing the treble, the four-fold and the long shot acca.
Looking at some potential bookings on todays games. Lukic is out for Fulham, he was a player I was going to back to be booked as he’s coming up against Rogers. I’m hoping Harrison Reed goes in there and if he starts I’ll definitely be backing him to be booked. As always… Make sure you use a bookmaker that offers super sub.
Good luck.